Thursday, June 6, 2013

A look into the surge in Liberal Party support


In 1922, electoral history was made in the United Kingdom as the Liberal Party failed to finish first or second in a general election for the first time in its history, as the relatively new Labour Party surpasses them to become the major party on the left.  Neither the Liberal Party, nor its successor the Liberal Democrats, have done better than third in any general election since.

In the aftermath of the 2011 federal election in Canada, many were asking if the Liberal Party of Canada was following in the same path as their British counterparts.  The party finished in third place for the first time since Confederation, finishing with only 34 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons.  The only worse result in Canadian history (at the federal level at least) is the Progressive Conservative party in 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives dropped from a majority government to just two seats.

If you look at the polls now, one can come to a conclusion that the Liberal Party has rebounded.  Since Justin Trudeau announced his intention to stand for the leadership, support for the party has nearly doubled, from the low 20s in October last year to 40% now.  If there were a general election now, the Liberals would be set for a majority government.