Three things to watch in Eastleigh tomorrow

Tomorrow, the people of Eastleigh in Hampshire go to the polls to elect their new MP after the Liberal Democrat Chris Hunhe, who pleaded guilty for telling his wife to take his speeding points, resigned from Parliament.  This by-election will be very close between Lib Dems and their coalition partners, the Conservatives.

If I had to call it, I would give the Liberal Democrat candidate Mike Thornton a slight advantage over Conservative Maria Hutchings, but the difference within the margin of error.

The above forecast is based on national polls projected onto Eastleigh.  Some local opinion polls are suggesting that UKIP could come in third, but I find it difficult to believe that there would be that much of a swing (22%) between Labour/LibDems and UKIP.  That said, as people look for a protest vote, UKIP is the main place to go.

So, what will we watch for on the technical side when the result is declared?

1. How the Liberal Democrats perform

Hunhe was, until his resignation, able to command great respect from his constituents.  Because of this, and his seniority in the party, he will have outperformed his party in the last general election.  If the Lib Dems do much worse than the 32% forecast, it will be more of a condemnation of Hunhe himself than the Liberal Democrats generally.

2. How UKIP performs

UKIP's performance has been mixed in the half dozen by-elections at the end of last year, finishing as high as 22% in Rotherham to only 4.5% in Manchester Central.  It's hard to tell where UKIP will do well and where they won't, largely due to the fact that they were a fringe party in the last general election.

3. The margin of victory

If the Liberal Democrats hang onto the seat, it will be by a majority far less than the UKIP vote.  This will lead many of the more Eurosceptic Conservatives to, in essence, blame UKIP for them losing the seat, and they will therefore try to push Cameron onto a more Eurosceptic and right-wing path.  Cameron won't budge  (that's not how a coalition works), so watch for more Tory rebellions in the latter half of the parliament.

On one final note, I've been looking at the trends in the polls over the last parliament.  If this by-election were to happen last year, before the surge in UKIP support, the Conservatives would easily have won.