Scottish Independence Referendum: Things just got interesting

For the first time in over a year, a poll conducted by a British Polling Council member (in this case, YouGov) suggested that Scotland could vote to leave the UK in less than two weeks' time.  We have seen the momentum gravitate towards independence since the second Salmond vs Darling debate, this poll make it official that nobody can now say that Scotland will certainly stay in the union.

The 5 August debate on STV didn't do much to change public opinion.  While Better Together leader Alistair Darling was able to hammer the currency question, he was effectively forced by First Minister Alex Salmond to admit (at least refusing to deny) that Scotland would be a prosperous nation.

The 25 August debate on the BBC, on the other hand, was clearly dominated by Salmond.  It seemed that the Scottish people (at least those in the audience) had enough of the currency debate and were more interested in other things, such as defense, the economy and welfare.  Salmond was able to capitalise on the unpopularity of the UK government's welfare cuts, with particular focus on the so-called "bedroom tax", and Darling appeared to make no attempt to fend these off.  Salmond was able to elaborate on what his vision of an independent Scotland would be, while Darling was less clear on how further devolution would address the problems that Salmond raised.

In another interesting twist this week, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson reportedly said this week that her party will likely lose next year's general election in the UK.  This is not something that party leaders generally say until after results have been declared, and especially not eight months out from the general election.  The only thing I can see that would lead her to say this is because Scotland isn't exactly a Tory heartland (the joke is that Scotland has more pandas than Tory MPs), and she's hoping that those who are voting Yes because of the Westminster government will change their minds.  As valid a point as she's making at the moment, I've seen enough political fortunes turning on a dime (this referendum being just the latest) to know that it's not a safe bet.

Despite Salmond's good performance, most of what he talked about revolved around, essentially, what would happen if the SNP won the Scottish general election in 2016.  The biggest unresolved issue is the kind of relationship Scotland will have with the European Union.  Particularly in doubt is whether European President Jean-Claude Junker would make joining the Euro and joining the Schengen zone, both things that Salmond opposes, conditions of joining the EU, and whether Salmond would consider those as dealbreakers.  Equally unclear is what will come out of the negotiations between Scotland and the rUK, particular with respect to the national debt (I still think the currency issue is moot because of the EU).  The negotiations in the event of a Yes vote, both with the rUK and the EU, are going to be very sticky, and the financial markets will pressure both leaders to come to a quick agreement on many of the outstanding issues.

PS There was also a PanelBase poll released last night that showed a 4-point lead for the union.  I tweeted both of the two polls, and this one, not the YouGov one, got the most interest.  Read into that as you will.