UK Election 2015: 17 weeks to go

After the 2010 general election resulted in a hung parliament and a coalition government, nobody thought that this parliament would still be governing.  But here we are, over 4½ years later, looking at proof that a coalition government can work.

But it's been painful.  Both parties have had to agree to things that they otherwise wouldn't in order to make the government work.  But in recent months, we have seen intra-government fighting in public like there hasn't been in a long time, as the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats try to form separate identities.

As we get closer to the election, I will be looking at where the polls are going, some of the trends developing, and try to develop an understanding of how each party got to where it did and how it can get to victory.

Let's start 2015 just by looking at the current state of play.  If the general election were to be held right now, the uniform swing model would show a second consecutive hung parliament.  This is the first time we will have seen this since the two elections of 1910.

Of course, this assumes that the polls are 100% accurate and the swings within each region are 100% uniform, neither of which are true.  So we need to look at the range of results that could come about as a result of these.  Even that, though, doesn't show any chance of any party forming a majority government, though it does show Labour clearly ahead of the Conservatives.

When this figure gets broken down between each of the three nations of Great Britain, we see that Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in England, well within the margin of error.  Labour is still dominating the landscape in Wales, and they have made up some ground in Scotland, but the SNP is still currently dominating there.

Even in England, Labour's gains are varying widely between the regions.  The largest swings are being seen in the south of England outside of London, which is traditionally Conservative heartland.  However, when we go to the traditional battleground which is the Midlands, the swing to Labour is very small.  However, the seat-richness of the South makes up for this, and Labour is gaining as much from the larger-than-average swing in the South as they're missing from the tiny swing in the Midlands.

Four months is a long time in politics, and so much can change between now and May.  Over the course of the coming weeks, we will be looking at a number of questions that have come up over the last couple of years.  We will look at how the parties have been doing in the numerous by-elections over the parliament, and if that can give us any hints with respect to a general election.  We will look into just how much of an impact UKIP is having on any Conservative chances of forming a government, and how much the SNP is having an impact on Labour.  We'll also look at the arguments that are winning public support up and down the country and see exactly what it is that will win this May's vote.