And that's it. Parliament has been prorogued for the final time, and will be formally dissolved tomorrow. MPs are returning to their constituencies to do what needs to be done to keep their jobs. Dubious promises will be made, tough questions will be dodged, and personal insults will be hurled. But ultimately, 650 MPs will be allowed into Westminster to shape the next five years of the country's future.
The polls give us a snapshot of the national mood, but every poll will show that there are still a number of voters who haven't yet made up their minds. But what about those who have either made up or otherwise changed their minds in recent months? Where have they been going, and what will the House of Commons look like if it continues?
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| State of the parties since May 2014 |
That is what the state of the parties has been over the last year. We see Labour was in majority government territory until shortly after the independence referendum in Scotland, when we saw SNP support begin to rocket up to never-before-seen levels. Even since then, though, we have been seeing a slow yet steady decline for Labour, and a rise for the SNP. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have been about flat since December.
If the trendlines since December are carried to election day, it will look like we'd have a small Labour lead over the Conservatives, though significantly short of what is needed for an overall majority. But when we look at a regional breakdown of these figures, we find it's not that simple.
England
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| State of the parties in England |
In England, we see that Labour and the Conservatives have been practically tied since mid-December, with around 260 seats each. In the last month, we've seen an uptick of about 15 seats for the Tories in the Midlands, which is traditionally seen as the battleground region of the country. However, these only represent about a fifth of the seats in England, and there is no movement in either direction in the rest of England.
Wales
| State of the parties in Wales |
In Wales, Labour has consistently stayed miles ahead of all other parties in the polls, with between 30 and 35 of the 40 seats up for grabs. There has really been no movement in Wales since the start of 2011, and there is no evidence that the nationalist movement that has grown in Scotland has made its way down to Wales.
Scotland
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| State of the parties in Scotland |
Scotland is where things have gotten interesting since last year's referendum on independence. Pre-referendum, Labour was steadily maintaining around 40 of the 59 seats available, which is where they finished back in 2010. But since the referendum, we saw the SNP change from focusing on independence to focusing on the devolution promised from the Westminster parties, which has become much more positively-received by people there. The SNP's support even continues to rise, especially after the party's leader declared that there will be no Tory government if they hold the balance of power. However, this momentum is limited by the fact that the SNP now stands at 52 out of 59 seats, and there's not much left here for Labour to lose.
Overall
Overall, the trendlines over the last few months suggest that there will be very little change between now and 7 May. It means that the parties will have to come up with a major surprise if they want to turn things their way. And it will need to be the kind of surprise which makes people who would otherwise stay home decide instead to turn up.
The polling data used for this analysis was all conducted before Tuesday night's leaders' programme on Sky News and Channel 4. As post-programme polling becomes available, any interesting trends will be posted here.
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