Campaign Week 2: Labour pulls ahead (slightly)

This week saw two major events on the campaign trail.  The Scottish party leaders attended not one, but two debates, hosted by STV (Tuesday) and BBC Scotland (Wednesday).  More on that later.

On Wednesday, we saw the biggest policy announcement of the campaign so far, as Labour leader Ed Miliband announced plans to end the controversial non-dom tax status.  In theory, this status is supposed to allow, for a fee, those who consider their true home to be outside of the UK to pay no tax on any income that has nothing to do with the UK (for example, moneys that are earned in Canada and stay there), though there are many people who live in the UK who probably shouldn't have this status.  While it is disputed whether or not it will bring in more money into the Treasury, the fairness argument has surely has resonated with voters.

Average of opinion polls since prorogation of Parliament

This time last week, the Labour lead over the Conservatives was sitting at around four seats, though because of a ComRes blip that was in the model at the time, the true figure would have been around 10.  Now, following the non-dom announcement, Labour's lead has extended to around 25 seats, putting them comfortably in minority government territory.

Average of polls released as of Saturday evening

In Scotland, the two debates seem to have shifted opinion in favour of the SNP.  I didn't get a chance to see much of the debates, but opinion on who won seems to have been mixed.  Since these debates, though, we saw the SNP return to the level they hit a fortnight ago, suggesting that their campaign is continuing to be seen as the most positive of the major parties north of the border.

Average of opinion polls in Scotland since prorogation of Parliament

To Watch This Week

Next week, we expect to see the parties release their full manifestos, which will be subject to much scrutiny from the press and the public.  Also, on Thursday, we have the BBC Opposition Leaders' Debate, featuring Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon, and Leanne Wood. Expect it to become a fight between Miliband and Sturgeon, as both leaders recognise that Labour's majority will be won or lost in Scotland.