London 2012 - State of the Campaign

London is 106 days away from hosting the 30th Olympic Summer Games, but before we get there, we have to elect a mayor and assembly in three weeks time.  Boris Johnson of the Conservative party is seeking his second term in office, and Ken Livingstone of the Labour party is looking to return to the mayor's office after being defeated four years ago.




ComRes came out with a poll last week showing the state of the mayoral election (change from 2008 in brackets).

First choice:

• Boris Johnson (CON): 47% (+5)
• Ken Livingstone (LAB): 40% (+4)
• Brian Paddick (LD): 6% (-4)
• Jenny Jones (GRN): 4% (+1)
• Lawrence Webb (UKIP): 1% (±0)
• Carlos Cortiglia (BNP): 1% (-2)
• Siobhan Benita (IND): <1%

Two-candidate preferred:

• Boris Johnson (CON): 53% (±0)
• Ken Livingstone (LAB): 47% (±0)

Mayoral elections work on an instant runoff.  Voters will make a first and second choice.  The two candidates with the most first choice votes will move onto the two-candidate round, and the votes for the remaining candidates will be transferred to the second choice if they're still in the race.

So this begs the question: what do Boris and Ken have to do to win?

Johnson's campaign seems to be running smoothly, but there is plenty of room for Ken to pull ahead.  However, looking at the details of the poll, he needs to get a couple of things out of the way quickly if he wants to do that.

• Explain his fares promise.  Only 28% of respondents to the poll believe that Ken can keep his promise to cut transport fares by 7%, whereas 45% believe he cannot.  The Commissioner for Transport for London (TfL) claims that the £338M surplus that he'd use to reduce fares have already been allocated to improvement works.  He needs to explain why there are differences between him and the Commissioner, as well as his backup plan if the money really isn't there.
• Energise his party's base.  Nearly 40% of those who say they like the Labour party do not like Livingstone, which is twice the figure applicable to Boris.  Ken needs to figure out why they are not enthusiastic about his campaign, and fix this.  Bringing this 40% figure down to the 20% Boris enjoys would lead to around a 3% swing, creating a virtual tie.

Boris' campaign hasn't faced a whole lot of controversy, at least none that he's been able to shake off.  But there are a couple of areas where he can spend a little more focus to improve his chances of winning.

• Livingstone has a 12% lead (38-26) on the question of which candidate best understands the needs of Londoners.  I would imagine part of this has to do with his federal party reducing the 50p tax rate, but that wouldn't explain the entire 12%.  This is something he will need to address.
• Livingstone also has a 10% lead (39-29) on the question of which is the most serious candidate.  He doesn't exactly appear the brightest bulb in the chandelier when he does interviews and debates, and a course on How To Deal With Jeremy Paxman may help him in this respect.

Three weeks can be a long time in politics (look up Michael Ignatieff for a prime example), so there's still plenty of time for both Ken and Boris to change things.  There are plenty of debates to go, including one I will be attending on 22 April sponsored by the BBC.  Ken can still pull ahead, but he has a lot of work to do to get there in the next three weeks.

(By the way, if anyone sees a manifesto for any of the assembly candidates for the City & East constituency, please let me know.)