Ontario? Already?

It's April 2012.  I should be talking about the Republican presidential primaries (probably next week) or the London Mayoral election (see last week) or even the Alberta elections (though I know little about Alberta politics).

I shouldn't be talking about a possible election in Ontario only six months after the last one.  But here we are anyway.  The Liberals, who finished one seat short of a majority in October, are facing a vote on their budget next week, and if that fails, we will by far have the shortest legislature in Ontario history.  As of now, the shortest-lived legislative assembly in Ontario still lasted well over 18 months (1975-1977), which is three times what we're facing next week.


The focus of this budget is primarily on cutting Ontario's $15.2B deficit, with the aim being to eliminate it by 2017.  While it looks like it will go in that direction, the means of getting there are proving to be unpopular with Ontarians.  Among the proposals contained in the document are suspending some infrastructure projects, selling off certain assets, and freezing public sector wages and welfare.

The opposition is unhappy.  PC leader Tim Hudak says this budget stifles economic growth, and has vowed to vote against it.  NDP leader Andrea Horwath has set her price for supporting the government as a tax increase on the wealthiest Ontarians (earning above $500k), removing the provincial portion of HST from home heating, and keeping the Northland railway under the government.  Liberal House Leader John Milloy has said that these will add to the deficit, a claim which Ms. Horwath denies.

So earlier this week, I had to scramble to get all of the election results from last year into my computer to see what would happen if we were to get a general election right now.  The latest poll I could find is from Forum Research, and was conducted on March 28, making it the only poll conducted after the budget was released.  Here's what it found, along with how I project it turned into seats:

• PC: 34% (-1), 46 seats (+9)
• LIB: 30% (-8), 37 seats (-16)
• NDP: 30% (+7), 24 seats (+7)

This would make the PCs the largest party in a minority parliament, finishing 8 seats short of the majority marker.  Looking at the details of the poll, particularly when it comes to opinions on the budget, a plurality of Ontarians (47%) believe this budget will hurt Ontario's recovery, vs 30% who believe it will benefit.  A majority, though, don't believe now is the right time for an election, a statistics that could prove dangerous for Mr. Hudak.

The vote is scheduled for Tuesday, and if the budget gets defeated, a general election will take place around June 12.