State of the US Presidential Election

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have now been officially nominated to the Republican Party ticket for President and Vice President, and next week, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be officially nominated for the Democrats.

So how are things going for the two men who want to become President in 2013?  Let's take a look at a few metrics to compare the states of the campaigns.



Truthfulness

So many ads have been hitting the airways, to the point where I actually pity those who live in swing states.  But how accurate are they?  For that, I go to PolitiFact's famous Truth-o-meter to compare the candidates.

Looking at all fact-checked statements since the start of April, here's how each of the candidates scores:

Barack Obama: 55% rated Half True or lower
True: 9 (18%)
Mostly True: 14 (27%)
Half True: 16 (31%)
Mostly False: 6 (12%)
False: 5 (10%)
Pants On Fire: 1 (2%)

Mitt Romney: 81% rated Half True or lower
True: 5 (12%)
Mostly True: 3 (7%)
Half True: 14 (33%)
Mostly False: 9 (21%)
False: 9 (21%)
Pants On Fire: 2 (5%)

Due to the low number of statements fact-checked by Politifact (5 from Biden and 9 from Ryan in the same time period),  the Half True or lower metric is not appropriate for VP candidates.

Also, rather surprisingly, there are low numbers of statements from the Super PACs "Priorities USA" and "Restoring our Future", which support Obama and Romney respectively, that were fact checked by PolitiFact.

Excitement about Candidates

When Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate, my instant reaction is that it would have negligible net effect on his chances of winning.  Ryan has the conservative street cred that Romney lacks, which will help to get conservatives out who would otherwise not have bothered to show up, but the same thing has the potential to alienate independents who want something a little more moderate.  There was a poll that showed around the same number of people saying they'd be more likely to vote for the ticket vs against the ticket now that Ryan's on it, but I forgot to bookmark it when I saw it.

Yesterday, I conducted a not-exactly-scientific experiment to see if Obama and Romney supporters were actually for their chosen candidate or simply against the others.  I asked Yahoo! Answers for reasons to vote for Obama and Romney.

On the Obama question, I received 11 answers:
Pro-Obama: 5 (56%)
Anti-Romney: 4 (44% - including one answering Chris Christie)
Other: 2

On the Romney question, I received 19 answers:
Pro-Romney: 6 (55%)
Anti-Obama: 5 (45%)
Other: 8 (including 3 saying I shouldn't care because I'm Canadian)


In both cases, despite my insistence on not mentioning the other side, nearly half of each side didn't give me a reason to vote for their preferred candidate.  This confirms what I've been reading in the media that neither side is really that excited about their party's candidate.  While I have read a few legitimate reasons to vote for either candidate, but both sides also have significant reservations about their respective candidate as well, and many don't seem as interested in voting for their candidate as voting against their opponent - which seems to be a message that both campaigns (and more so the Super PACs) are going for.

Who will win?

It's both too close and too early to call.  The latest Real Clear Politics poll average gives Obama a 0.1% lead over Romney (46.4 to 46.3), well within any margin of error.  When it comes to electoral votes, a simulation perfomed by 270towin.com gives Obama an average of 294 electoral votes to 244 to Romney, and an 84% chance of Obama winning.  This is the lowest probability since at least May (as far back as the simulation history goes), and there is a chance that this could drop further as more state-by-state polls come out.

There is still a lot that can change between now and November, and it will likely come down to the next two jobless reports as well as the third quarter GDP report.  Obama will hope for good numbers, and Romney will use not-so-good numbers to boost his case.

What I'm going to look at with interest in the days following Election Night will be turnout numbers.  With all of the negativity coming out of both campaigns (not to mention Super PACs), I would not be surprised to see this hit near-record lows.  If this happens, one can hope (though equally doubt) that politicians will take a hint.

What do you make of the state of the US election?  Are there any figures I should consider commenting upon?  I want to hear all sides of the debate.