Campaign Week 6: The final polls

That's it.  The campaign is over.  In just a few hours, the polls will be open, and in 24 hours, the new government will have been decided.  So what is the final call?

Opinion Polls: Too Close to Call

Weighted average of opinion polls released on Wednesday night

The polls have not budged much throughout the campaign, and the seat ranges for both the Conservatives and Labour almost completely overlap.  On balance of probabilities, the Conservatives are more likely to finish with the most seats, but only just.

But remember, finishing one seat ahead of your nearest rival means nothing.  You need to get a majority of MPs to support your government, and the Conservatives can't get anywhere near enough MPs to get to 326 on these figures.  The only feasible government that these figures suggest can be formed will involve Labour and the Scottish and Welsh nationalists.

The smallest feasible combination to forming a government

In the individual nations, the Conservatives have been able to regain their lead in England.  The largest swing appears to be in the south, with less in the midlands.  Still, the Tories are looking at losing around 30 seats here.

Scotland has been the story of the campaign, with support for the SNP taking off in the aftermath of the independence referendum and not looking back since.  A year ago, we saw Labour's 41 seats here as a stronghold, but that's looking like the most pessimistic scenario for the nationalists.

 

In Wales and Northern Ireland, there's nothing particularly interesting going on.  Labour is expected to get a similar result in Wales than they did in 2010, while there has been little sign of movement between the parties in Northern Ireland.

Bookies: Similarly Hung

If we look at the latest betting odds, we find that the Conservatives are the favourites in more constituencies than Labour, though we remain comfortably in hung parliament territory.

Betting odds downloaded as of Wednesday night

However, even though this puts the Tories 15 seats ahead of Labour, I'm still unable to find a credible way to get them to 326 seats based on these figures.

The closest I could come to a Conservative-led government

What do the odds say for some of the most prominent figures?  The only members of the cabinet who could find themselves in trouble are the Employment Secretary Esther McVey and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander,  London Mayor Boris Johnson and former Scottish FM Alex Salmond should each have no problem returning to parliament, though the same can't be said about Green leader Natalie Bennett.  Three races that are too close to call will include the Scottish Labour Leader Jim Murphy, UKIP Leader Nigel Farage, and Respect Leader George Galloway.

Prominent figures and how the bookies say they will do

What to expect over the next 48 hours

Assuming we don't have another 1992 incident, we will have a hung parliament once all of the votes have been counted and all of the constituencies declared.  Other than that, everything is up in the air.  The negotiations between the parties will be painful for everyone involved, and we will be very fortunate if we know by Monday morning whether we have a government.

Tomorrow night is going to be very exciting, I assure you.