Three way race in Canada? Not quite...

We are now just over 150 days away from the next federal election, and the public opinion polls over the last week have shown the three major parties within just a couple of percentage points from each other when it comes to national support.

Weighted average of opinion polls over recent weeks appear to show a tight race

However, when you translate this into seats in parliament, a substantial difference begins to emerge.  The Liberals and NDP are close to each other, but the Conservatives are well ahead, though well short of being able to form another majority government.

Seat projection ranges based on recent opinion polls

So how do we explain the discrepancy between the opinion polls and the seat projection?

The Swingometer has been a friend of elections in the UK for 60 years, and is meant to show the effect of a vote swing between two parties.  On the Canadian Swingometer, each blue dot represents a Conservative seat that is vulnerable to a Liberal swing, and each red dot represents a Liberal seat that is vulnerable to a Tory swing.  The closer a seat is to the central pendulum, the more marginal the seat is.

Liberal vs Conservative Swingometer (set at zero)

The Swingometer will allow us to compare the national swing with that in each region of the country, as well as how efficient this swing is.  Across the entire country, we are seeing a swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals averaging just under 10%, meaning one in ten voters are changing from Conservative to Liberal.  We can see that this is taking a lot of Conservative seats turning red for the Liberals.

Liberal vs Conservative Swingometer (showing current opinion polls)

Of course, the opinion polls are showing that this swing is not uniform across the country, and the consequences of a swing will be different in different parts of the country.

	In Québec, there really isn't much of a Swingometer between the Conservatives and the Liberals, because most of the province went to the NDP in the last election.  The good news for the Liberals is that the swing here is rather small relative to the rest of the country, which means there is less waste of swing than there otherwise would be.  It's worth noting that the swing between the Liberals and the NDP here is only enough to pick up five seats in the province from them.
	Ontario is the biggest battleground between the Conservatives and the Liberals; even though the province only has a third of the seats in total, it has more than half of the seats on the Swingometer.  However, we see here that the Liberals are underperforming in Ontario relative to the rest of the country, and the fact that the pendulum is on the far side of a thin stretch doesn't do anything to help them.
	Between BC and Manitoba, which is classic Conservative heartland, we see a massive swing to the Liberals of nearly 15%.  However, this swing is very inefficient, as it only picks up fewer than a dozen seats.  In order to be properly competitive here, the Liberals would need a swing of another 10% against the Tories.
	In Atlantic Canada, there are only 32 seats to begin with, which represents less than 10% of what is available in the House of Commons.  This also happens to be where the Liberals are experiencing the greatest swing in the country, at an even 15%.  While this has allowed them to re-take the lead from the Conservatives, the sheer lack of seats available makes this a rather inefficient swing.

So what if we swapped the swing in Ontario with the swings in the rest of English-speaking Canada?  The 7% gain in Ontario would see them pick up around 20 seats, while the 7% loss elsewhere would see them lose around 12.  This efficiency alone, while representing a similar share of the popular vote, would allow the Liberals to move ahead of the NDP and begin to challenge the Conservatives in terms of being the largest party.  A further 3% swing concentrated in Ontario (which would translate to around 1% nationally) would then be enough for them to overtake the Tories.

Now, one quick thing to remember here: Canada's government works on a parliamentary system.  This means that a prime minister must have the support of an overall majority of MPs in order to form a government.  If the Conservatives don't win a majority government in October, it's possible that the other two parties can come to an arrangement that would create a Liberal-led government.  While being the largest party makes it look more legitimate in the eyes of the public, as far as the constitution is concerned, it makes no difference.